Last week, the Centre for Disease Control (CDC) released new data showing that 1 in 31 children in the United States is diagnosed with autism spectrum disorder — an increase from the previous estimate of 1 in 36. The findings come from the CDC’s Autism and Developmental Disabilities Monitoring (ADDM) Network, which tracks autism diagnoses among children ages 4 and 8 across 16 sites nationwide.
This has led to a renewed interest and comments from the media and politicians, especially Robert F. Kennedy, Jr., the new head of the Department of Health and Human Services.
2025 Autism prevalence in the U.S.
According to the CDC, “The updated prevalence report reflects both progress and persistent disparities in early identification and access to services. Increased autism awareness, better screening and broader diagnostic criteria have helped more children - especially those in historically underserved communities - get diagnosed earlier. But the data also points to critical gaps that must be addressed.”
Key Finding of the CDC's latest study include:
- Prevalence: 1 in 31 (or 3.2%) 8-year-old children were diagnosed with autism in 2022, up from 1 in 36 (2.7%) in 2020.
- Among 4-year-old children, autism prevalence was 1 in 34 (or 2.9%), with sharp increases in diagnosis rates around 36 months.
- Boys were 3.4 times more likely than girls to be diagnosed with autism.
- Prevalence was lowest among white children (2.7%) and highest among American Indian or Alaska Native children (3.8%), Asian or Pacific Islander children (3.8%) and Black children (3.7%). Hispanic (3.3%) and multiracial (3.2%) children also had higher rates of diagnosis than white children. This continues a trend first seen in 2020 and points to progress in autism identification in historically underserved communities.
- In 5 surveillance sites, autism prevalence was higher in areas with lower median household income or greater social vulnerability.
- Co-occurring conditions: Over a third (39.6%) of children with autism also had co-occurring intellectual disability. This number was even higher among Black children (52.8%) and American Indian or Alaska Native children (50%), possibly due to factors like lower income, food and housing insecurity, or limited access to early intervention.
Diagnosis
The CDC identified the following key point on the diagnosis of Autism:
- Schools remain a critical point of identification: 67.3% of children with autism were identified through special education eligibility.
- However, nearly 18% were identified based on this criterion alone, with no documented medical diagnosis.
- Median age of diagnosis was 47 months (or about 4 years), and about half of children with autism were evaluated by age 3.
- Children born in 2018 were more likely to be identified with autism by age 4 than those born in 2014—an encouraging sign that efforts to promote developmental screening and early diagnosis are making a difference.
Increase in reporting
This updated report by the CDC shows a 384% increase in reported autism prevalence since 2020, as shown by The Autism Community in Action below:
Taken at face value, this can easily create the impression the Kennedy is validated in insisting that: "..autism is an “epidemic” that must be caused by an environmental exposure that has been introduced within the past several decades."
But as Scientific American explains, autism is between 60 and 90 percent inheritable. And in up to 40 percent of cases, doctors can find a specific set of genetic mutations to explain the condition. While there are environmental risk factors for autism, such as air pollution, rising rates are mostly attributable to broadened diagnostic categories and more comprehensive screening.
(For those among us that REALLY like maths and stats, you can read E is for Epi's debunking of how these numbers are reported statistically.)
Change in Diagnostics
The article also notes that the past 25 years saw a number of changes in how autism was diagnosed. The Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders (DSM), which lays out criteria for psychiatric diagnoses in the U.S., called autism “schizophrenic reaction, childhood type” in its first edition and subsequently referred to it as “schizophrenia, childhood type” until 1980, when the diagnosis changed to “infantile autism.” The criteria then focused on external symptoms such as delays in language development, resistance to change and attachments to objects.
In 1987 the criteria widened and encompassed three categories related to social interaction, communication and restrictions in activities. In 1994 the diagnosis of Asperger’s disorder appeared, only to be subsumed into a broadened “autism spectrum disorder” in the DSM’s fifth edition (DSM-5) in 2013. That year was also the first in which autism and attention deficit hyperactivity disorder could be diagnosed in the same child at the same time - Prior to that, an ADHD diagnosis would preclude a child from getting an autism diagnosis, even though researchers currently estimate that half or more of autistic people also have ADHD.
Science News adds that researchers are increasingly realizing that autism may occur alongside other conditions, while Science.org reports that nearly two-thirds of the increase in reporting of an Autism diagnosis was matched by a decline in the rate at which children were labeled as having an "intellectual disability."
Zachary Warren, a clinical psychologist at Vanderbilt University Medical Center says. “Individuals that might have received a diagnosis of a clinical disability in the past, or been labeled with a number of different behavioral, psychiatric or learning issues, are now more likely to get diagnosed with autism as well.”
Impact on the Autism Community
John Marble of Neurodiversity Pathways provides a succinct response to the newly released prevalence statistics and the attention it is getting: "This increase is not a warning sign. It’s a reflection of progress... In plain language: More kids are being correctly identified as autistic because we’re getting better at recognizing autism in a wider range of people, across more communities."
It’s also totally fair that some people are asking questions about whether these higher numbers really reflect better diagnostic processes. When you see statistics shift this quickly, it’s natural to wonder why. That’s exactly why studies like this one are so important.
The researchers looked closely at how diagnoses are happening and who is getting diagnosed. What they found lines up with years of advocacy and data: when we increase access, improve screening tools, and train professionals more effectively, more people get identified - especially those who were missed before. This isn’t cause for suspicion. It’s cause for reassurance that more families are finally getting the answers and support they need.
Marble continues, "Unfortunately, there are loud voices right now calling these numbers an “epidemic.” That framing is not just wrong—it’s dangerous. It not only misinterprets the report, it fuels stigma, erases autistic people’s lived realities, and distracts from what actually matters: giving people the tools and support they need to thrive."
"Autism isn’t a crisis. Ignoring the needs of autistic people is."